‘Time to get fit.’
On October 24th, Brad Gerstner, CEO of hedge fund Altimeter Capital, shared an open letter to Meta CEO Mark Zuckerberg, titled as above, as an investor. He stated that investing over $100 billion for 10 years in the unknown future of the metaverse is huge and terrible, even for Silicon Valley. He pointed out that Meta has invested more in capital expenditures than Apple, Tesla, Twitter, Snap, and Uber combined, and that it now needs to address the need to regain the trust of the market and shareholders.
Besides Meta, various companies such as Microsoft, Nvidia, Unity, Roblox, and Snap have been making extensive, ambitious, and open investments because the realization of the metaverse presupposes the existence of a single, unified world. The difficulty of its implementation is not only due to the technological limitations of a single company, but also because related technology companies have to cooperate in a way that is simply not profitable or that they do not want to do individually.
In other words, there is no incentive to provide a portal that allows players of Battlegrounds to immediately move to World of Warcraft. This is why the perfect digital world created by a single person depicted in the movie 'Ready Player One', often associated with the metaverse, exists only in the movie.
Perhaps for this reason, each company started calling the games or platforms they invest in as the metaverse, and eventually, even Coca-Cola used the ad copy 'A flavor born in the metaverse' in conjunction with Fortnite. After this unimaginable and uninteresting flavor expression, the word metaverse seems to have gradually lost its power.
Neil Trevett, president of the non-profit technology standards group Khronos, which announced a collaborative organization called the 'Metaverse Standards Forum', stated that while establishing the forum name this way aims to solidify the vague concept of the metaverse, it is more meaningful to establish technological standards one by one, giving companies more choices in their future investments rather than getting caught up in the word itself.
The metaverse has become an expression symbolizing investment in a speculative future rather than a term expressing a specific technology. Now, rather than completing the whole based on their expectations, related technology companies need to redefine their goals from the perspective of various industry investors who aim to connect the real and digital worlds with technology. So, what are the considerations that companies that call themselves pioneers in realizing the metaverse vision need to make in order to create a clearer process that can convince investors from now on?
Ironically, we find two clues to this in an interview with a novelist who first created the metaverse concept and in the cloth mask trend as a fashion item in Western society during the pandemic.
First, refer to the novelist's writing method.
Neal Stephenson, currently a founder of a blockchain technology company, is the one who first conceived the metaverse concept in his 1992 science fiction novel “Snow Crash”. He revealed in a recent interview with Venturebeat that he was able to get to where he is today because he focused on his first responsibility as a novelist: helping the audience stop distrusting this new world and immerse themselves in the story.
He says that he applied his technical knowledge to reality based on the dynamics of the real world, included details that looked somewhat realistic, and tried to create a logical and consistent world within the novel for readers to experience.
As Microsoft CEO Satya Nadella stated, the essence of connection through the metaverse is the human presence that is confirmed within another world. However, Meta's VR platform Horizon Worlds and Microsoft's virtual meeting platform Mesh have only shown the possibility of their implementation so far, and are considered to lack appeal as an alternative to existing experiences.
In general, a novel is filled with everything the author projects onto it, and it has a structure with related personas and events. Furthermore, all these elements evoke real-life experiences to realize specific experiences, making them very effective in providing entertainment and leading to immersion in the world for readers.
Just like we laugh at a comedy skit that depicts a blind date situation because we actively utilize our own blind date experiences, what metaverse-related technology companies need is to pay attention to continuously increasing the points where people can empathize and feel entertained based on their real-world experiences before the world with completed technology implementation.
The reason why Neal Stephenson, a science fiction novelist 30 years ago, could work as Chief Futurist at augmented reality technology company Magic Leap and become one of the founders of a blockchain technology company may be due to his unique selling point as a novelist, which set him apart from the established giants with enormous financial resources in the industry.
Second, consider social norm innovation before technological innovation.
In the early stages of the pandemic, mask-wearing by Asians in the US was experienced as a symbol of a virus that harmed those around them. At that time, the difference in mask culture between East and West tended to lead to hate crimes against Asians, but the subsequent trend of cloth masks as a fashion item led by celebrities became one of the factors that changed people's social perception of masks and made them accept it as a natural change in daily life.
The technology industry tends to rely on futurism. While developing products that are currently selling is good, selling the future is more advantageous in generating expectations of greater success and attracting investors. However, it also requires a perspective that alleviates the uncertainty of technology adopters when a new technology comes out. At this time, strong comfort is most effective, so the patterns of new technological experiences should stem from behaviors inherent in existing society.
Google Glass in 2011 and Meta and Ray-Ban's collaborative AR glasses in 2022 do not inform the wearer that they are becoming a part of the metaverse without their knowledge. People react to intentions, and when they realize they have been exposed to a situation they were unaware of, they experience discomfort and fear simultaneously. Therefore, the announcement of laws banning Google Glass wearers from entering cafes and prohibiting its use while driving, and the WSJ's chilling review of the Rayban series are natural reactions in reality. In other words, new technological investments and attempts to implement virtual worlds connected to the real world require a more delicate and nuanced market approach that considers existing social norms.
We must remember that the reason why shared scooter services have received the wrath of urban residents worldwide is because they disregarded the existing systems within society that have been organized around traditional modes of transportation. Rather than breaking the order all at once, it is necessary to consider a strategy of gradually making changes from small parts.
Author Introduction: Representative Son Byeong-chae helps solve corporate issues and strengthen internal capabilities through human phenomenon-centered analysis based on on-site observation using investigative reporting techniques. ryan@reasonofcreativity.com
*This articleis the original content of a named column published in the Electronic Times on November 8, 2022..
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